When underdogs break the rules.
David’s victory over Goliath, in the Biblical account, is held to be an anomaly. It was not. Davids win all the time. The political scientist Ivan Arreguín-Toft recently looked at every war fought in the past two hundred years between strong and weak combatants. The Goliaths, he found, won in 71.5 per cent of the cases. That is a remarkable fact. Arreguín-Toft was analyzing conflicts in which one side was at least ten times as powerful—in terms of armed might and population—as its opponent, and even in those lopsided contests the underdog won almost a third of the time.
In the Biblical story of David and Goliath, David initially put on a coat of mail and a brass helmet and girded himself with a sword: he prepared to wage a conventional battle of swords against Goliath. But then he stopped. “I cannot walk in these, for I am unused to it,” he said (in Robert Alter’s translation), and picked up those five smooth stones. What happened, Arreguín-Toft wondered, when the underdogs likewise acknowledged their weakness and chose an unconventional strategy? He went back and re-analyzed his data.
In those cases, David’s winning percentage went from 28.5 to 63.6. When underdogs choose not to play by Goliath’s rules, they win, Arreguín-Toft concluded, “even when everything we think we know about power says they shouldn’t.”
Read the full article
Sunday, May 10, 2009
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
Good Friday Tornado
This is a sad blog entry, whenever I read about fatalities or lost of life / massive property that I personally could prevent I feel troubled.
I am referring to the “Good Friday” Tornado. Good Friday refers to the crucifixion of Jesus when, in a later stage, he went up to heaven … well this more or less what had happen to John Bryant (on April 10th – the Good Friday) or in his own words:
"It sounded like a train coming."
"I knew in my gut that something was wrong."
"I was going up, up, up ... and I flew."
"It broke my heart."
The last time John Bryant saw his 9-week-old daughter, Olivia and wife Kori, 30, "he was being sucked through the roof" of his home.
He "was looking down at Olivia as she was looking up at him ... His exact words were, 'I was going up, up, up ... and I flew.'"
Few days later, volunteers found Olivia under debris about 20 feet from what was once her home. The baby was found, still strapped in her car seat that her parents thought would give her extra protection.
Yet another 20 feet away, under a tree, volunteers found Olivia mom Kori Bryant's.
On top of the two deaths — Kori and Olivia Bryant (names that I will need to remember), there were 42 injuries and more than 900 homes and businesses that were damaged by the tornado.
Emergency Management Agency figures showed the destruction amounted to almost $42 million to businesses and 845 homes. About 117 homes were demolished, 298 sustained major damage and 175 sustained minor damage. An additional 255 homes were affected. More than 8,000 tons of debris, tree and brush were collected.
The Good Friday Tornado was kind and less deadly compares to his predecessors which rage at the same route during 1949 killing 55 people in its path, and another twister which killed 7 people in 1975.
I hope that by the next tornado season we will have a Nooly system up and running in the South East.
I would feel much better knowing that our minute – by – minute Location base Nowcasting system help to save some lives with accurate early warnings and alerts.
The following video is a great example for the Nooly power solution; when we see the killer tornado is building itself and making a touchdown while the NWS weather report give a general tornado warning.
With the Nooly system the Tornado warnings are much more focus (both in time and location) and they are specific for each tornado or a possible tornado with contrasted with the common general tornado warning as we have today.
To show how serious the situation was and how people were not prepared to this; here is a news flash tracking the 23 miles twister;
They went on air an about 12:35 (about 16 min after the Tornado made touchdown).
There was no any specific tornado warning only a general warning for the all region, and nothing to warn the people of deadly F4 tornado making his way to this schools and kindergartens’
Twister data from NOAA
Location / Time of event: Rutherford County, 04/10/09 12:19 PM
Beginning Point: Kelley Road and Hwy 41A - SW of Murfreesboro
Ending Point: Eight (8) Miles NE of Murfreesboro
Rating: EF4 - Maximum estimated wind speed around 170 MPH
Path Length: 23.25 Miles (~37.5 km.)
Maximum Width: Almost 1/2 Mile (800 m)
Fatalities: 2
Injuries: 42
For some personal stories from the Tornado I recommend reading “MRS. 007” blog
I am referring to the “Good Friday” Tornado. Good Friday refers to the crucifixion of Jesus when, in a later stage, he went up to heaven … well this more or less what had happen to John Bryant (on April 10th – the Good Friday) or in his own words:
"It sounded like a train coming."
"I knew in my gut that something was wrong."
"I was going up, up, up ... and I flew."
"It broke my heart."
The last time John Bryant saw his 9-week-old daughter, Olivia and wife Kori, 30, "he was being sucked through the roof" of his home.
He "was looking down at Olivia as she was looking up at him ... His exact words were, 'I was going up, up, up ... and I flew.'"
Few days later, volunteers found Olivia under debris about 20 feet from what was once her home. The baby was found, still strapped in her car seat that her parents thought would give her extra protection.
Yet another 20 feet away, under a tree, volunteers found Olivia mom Kori Bryant's.
On top of the two deaths — Kori and Olivia Bryant (names that I will need to remember), there were 42 injuries and more than 900 homes and businesses that were damaged by the tornado.
Emergency Management Agency figures showed the destruction amounted to almost $42 million to businesses and 845 homes. About 117 homes were demolished, 298 sustained major damage and 175 sustained minor damage. An additional 255 homes were affected. More than 8,000 tons of debris, tree and brush were collected.
The Good Friday Tornado was kind and less deadly compares to his predecessors which rage at the same route during 1949 killing 55 people in its path, and another twister which killed 7 people in 1975.
I hope that by the next tornado season we will have a Nooly system up and running in the South East.
I would feel much better knowing that our minute – by – minute Location base Nowcasting system help to save some lives with accurate early warnings and alerts.
The following video is a great example for the Nooly power solution; when we see the killer tornado is building itself and making a touchdown while the NWS weather report give a general tornado warning.
With the Nooly system the Tornado warnings are much more focus (both in time and location) and they are specific for each tornado or a possible tornado with contrasted with the common general tornado warning as we have today.
To show how serious the situation was and how people were not prepared to this; here is a news flash tracking the 23 miles twister;
They went on air an about 12:35 (about 16 min after the Tornado made touchdown).
There was no any specific tornado warning only a general warning for the all region, and nothing to warn the people of deadly F4 tornado making his way to this schools and kindergartens’
Twister data from NOAA
Location / Time of event: Rutherford County, 04/10/09 12:19 PM
Beginning Point: Kelley Road and Hwy 41A - SW of Murfreesboro
Ending Point: Eight (8) Miles NE of Murfreesboro
Rating: EF4 - Maximum estimated wind speed around 170 MPH
Path Length: 23.25 Miles (~37.5 km.)
Maximum Width: Almost 1/2 Mile (800 m)
Fatalities: 2
Injuries: 42
For some personal stories from the Tornado I recommend reading “MRS. 007” blog
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Handyman
Handyman,
Whenever people, that I am not that familiar with, ask me for my position in the startup I am working for I usually have this answer – I am the Handyman of our company.
Maybe it is the Chinese modesty which overwrite my Israeli nature to brag about my shiny title (Founder and CEO of a young innovative startup) or is it just my subconscious telling me that I am not yet a CEO. Saying that only when I will earn a CEO salary, have the right car and other status symbol that go with the title I might be eligible for the CEO title J, until then I am just the company handyman J
If you think of this, half of the people who ask me for my position in the company actually are more interested in; how much money I earn, or what is my eco status .. in other words they do care if I have or not all the goodies of a successful CEO..
So for now, all of us are good with the handyman definition because, at the end of the day, this is exactly what I am doing in the company.
Issues with the bank – I will be the first one to know about it.
Investor question / requirement – my phone will be the first one to ring.
Patent and IP issues … my full attention will be required both in the high level strategy and in most cases also in the actual wording.
Agreements ? … clients, investors, employees, partners etc… there is no question about it. On the right pile of my desk and as a blinking reminder on my to do list.
A laptop, server, mobile phone or other equipment is malfunctioning … I will be the second one to know (after the owner).
Clients, sales ? no problem, 32A (my favorite seat) in Y – Class and I am on my way to see the client packing all the problems that I will try to tackle on the 12 hours flight (hey, we are an early stage start up!).
These are all among the “clean” work and duties that a young, early stage start-up manager must deal with .. since it’s a white and clean blog I just use the nice jobs and left the ugly shores for your imagination ;-)
Nevertheless, at the end of the day, it is all about the rush !
The title is really not important, the salary is nice, but its main function (at this stage) is to pay the bills.
It is the rush of creation.
Changing the world.
Having a dream and taking it from endless mind games into a working service / product that your average Miss Adams will used on a daily base and that might save Mr. John’s lives in the event of a blizzard or a severe storm.
If in order to take this dream and turn it into reality I need to serve as the company “Handyman” for a while, so I will be the best handyman building the best product yet.
Monday, May 4, 2009
My first post
Hi,
Welcome to my new Blog.
It’s a new experience for me – blogging,,,
well I am ok in writing but the question is how long I can keep up with this..
My main idea is to share some thoughts I have about two main issues; China (and the Chinese market) the opportunities and challenges it present. so if you are reading this post and you have some comments about this please post them or mail me, if you have any interesting article please send it to me or refer the link to me.
Another thing I would like to share with you is a kind of first hand peek on the process of building a great LBS weather related startup, about some of the challenges one is going, the ups and downs. I would also try to share some “inside” info regarding our technology and the way it will shape all of our future.
Personally I don’t believe in “stealth” startups, I believe that if you are good, innovative, know your place and niche in the market, know your clients and their needs (some good patents coverage will not be bad idea) you will do ok. Or as a local “poet” once said: you need to start the best and fastest you can and then slowly slowly improve yourself get better and get faster ..
About competitors, well I believe in my company, in our exceptional team, in our innovation and our capabilities. together with our great patents and employees dedication I see no reason to worry from our competition (as long as our guys will do the best they can and just keep getting better and better). Today I am in a place when I look at today’s competitors as our tomorrow partners.
So if you are one of our “competitor” please feel free to join in to the open discussions, participate in the polls and share some insight with us.
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